Alan Brown, Co-chief executive, State Street Global Advisors
Big opportunity/risk for 2005: Outside geopolitical risks, the big one must be the US and world economy. What could cause an upset? We remain very dependent on the US and if the consumer gives up, or investment fails to pick up, we could be in trouble. We are watching the employment, housing and confidence numbers very closely. And there's one other thing that could spoil the party â the dollar. We are not looking for a currency crisis in 2005, but by their very nature they tend to come out of left field when no one is watching. And with the twin deficits so large in the US in relation to world savings, there is always the potential. What about a positive surprise? How about this: Bush listens to his old friend Blair, gets serious about Middle East policy and Israel and, with new leadership at the PLO, he makes the breakthrough that has eluded everyone. The Iraq elections are a success and in the face of a changed US attitude, tensions and terrorism abate all round. Was that a pig that just flew past?
