In the opening scene of last year’s big-budget disaster movie, 2012, a group of scientists is seen frantically trying to persuade the rest of the world to take precautions to mitigate the devastating effects of an impending natural catastrophe. According to one restructuring banker, this is similar to how he and his colleagues feel as they attempt to convince clients that they need to deal with their rapidly maturing debt obligations while there is capacity in the market to do so.

Data from information provider Thomson Reuters shows there is a wall of more than a trillion dollars of debt due for refinancing between now and 2017, with a large chunk maturing next year and in 2012. While the capital markets are receptive at the moment, there is no guarantee companies will be able to rely on high-yield investors or existing equity holders to save the day in two years' time. The time to act, restructuring bankers argue, is now. Gareth Davies, head of European restructuring at Greenhill, said: "Many companies will scrape through this year, but will struggle badly in 2011 and just won't be able to sign off their year-end accounts. The sensible ones are starting to look and, over the next six months, I expect that number to go up substantially." Restructuring became a buzz-word in the months during and immediately after the financial crisis, as companies sought specialist advice on how they could keep creditors happy and weather the storm. Bankers predicted a flood of restructuring mandates, and hiring in the sector picked up. Restructuring bankers have remained busy, but the predicted deluge of work has not materialised. In exchange for a premium, lenders have proved willing to "amend and extend" existing obligations rather than strictly enforce covenants, giving companies breathing space for another couple of years. Full-scale restructurings have taken place - for example the debt-for-equity swap at chemical firm British Vita, and the 50% haircut taken by lenders to bathroom supplier Sanitec - but they have been the exception rather than the rule. In part this is down to the resilience of the high-yield bond market, which has allowed companies to pay down debt when 12 months ago that looked impossible. Last month Matalan Finance, carmaker Renault and drink producer Pernod Ricard issued bonds worth a combined $2bn (€1.5bn) with an average coupon of 6.7%. Richard Stables, co-head of European and global restructuring at Lazard, said: "In terms of volumes there are lots of over-levered businesses, some of which will require restructuring assistance, but many of the issues were related to existing loan-to-value covenants rather than liquidity problems." Matthew Prest, head of restructuring for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Moelis & Co, said: "It is certainly quieter than it was this time last year. Whilst people talk about restructuring it has been far more common for companies to renegotiate covenants in return for higher pricing and in many cases additional equity." As M&A dried up post-crisis, bulge-bracket investment banks including Nomura, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs built up restructuring practices to compete with specialists such as Houlihan Lokey, Blackstone Group and Lazard. Restructuring experts were in demand and M&A and leveraged finance bankers were seized on to fill in the gaps. Yet independents with a history in restructuring continued to pick up the bulk of the work. In the Thomson Reuters league table for completed global distressed debt and bankruptcy restructuring for last year, eight of the top 10 advisers are independents, with Houlihan Lokey number one. Peter Marshall, managing director and co-head of the London-based restructuring practice at Houlihan Lokey, said: "Last year was the busiest ever for the industry, both in terms of the total number of deals and the complexity of those deals. The number of new transactions coming through has since decreased but there are strong signs that demand will pick up again soon." Things may be slower now than many predicted, but there is still a strong sense that many companies have simply delayed addressing their issues rather than finding a long-term solution. Michael Kramer, the New York-based head of restructuring at Perella Weinberg Partners, said the pipeline in the US had also slowed, but the fundamental issues were the same: over-leverage, difficult trading conditions and lack of capacity. Kramer said: "We are faced with a significant wall of maturities in 2011 and 2012 and companies will have to figure out a way to refinance and delever, which will be very difficult. In addition to impending corporate maturities, sovereigns needing to issue significant amounts of debt will also be competing for capacity in the capital markets, making it harder to refinance out of situations." "When faced with the prospect of scarcity in the capital markets, corporates have to ask themselves whether they are prepared to pay a premium to do something now for the sake of certainty." In the meantime, London and New York-based bankers are occupying themselves abroad. Moelis & Co is advising the government of Dubai on the restructuring of investment company Dubai World; Hawkpoint Partners has spent the past few months in Iceland; and Talbot Hughes McKillop is advising Irish conglomerate Quinn Group. Davies said: "There will be a constant stream of work as maturities come about and debt cannot be refinanced. Sponsors need to take a proactive approach now and get ahead of the curve before they are vying with 20 other companies in the same boat."