Immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some observers asked whether it increased the risk that China would invade Taiwan. After all, if Vladimir Putin could shock the world by attempting to enforce his territorial claim to Ukraine, might not Xi Jinping do the same with China’s former province?

Three weeks later, that risk seemed to have lessened. The unexpectedly strong and united response of the west in terms of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine would surely give the cautious Xi pause, said the pundits. Western businesses with big interests in China could relax a bit, at least about that threat.