What are the trends that will drive markets in 2016? The calendar year end rarely marks by itself a new economic direction. Some of the economic and political issues that will dominate the coming year are already bubbling under. But investors must sift underlying patterns from headline noise. What are the signals from the key events of 2015?

The year opened with a lot of noise on Greece. But it did not prove the breaking point for the European Union, or even the euro. Nor have refugees yet undermined any of Europe's governments. But if Germany does not reflate and release the eurozone from austerity, new splits may emerge. French moves to defer EU budget rules may point to a bigger and broader role for fiscal policy.