The late Harold Macmillan, UK prime minister in 1957-63, once said: "Events, dear boy, events," when asked by a journalist to explain the factors which blow strategies off course.

In the absence of same, this summer has seen a remarkable recovery in the value of equities, bonds and even real estate. Complacency has been the end result as institutions - with a vested interest in reassuring their clients - started talking the market higher, using reasoning which is only plausible in the light of recent price rises.