There is only one sane reaction to signs that the global economy is starting to recover after over half a decade of despondency: hope for the best and plan for the worst. A resurgence means that the world’s unprecedented experiment in ultra-easy money may, slowly but surely, be drawing to an end. It would be a miracle if the long period of record-low interest rates has not created distortions and dislocations that will unwind in painful ways once the central banking taps are turned off.

But how? History shows us that it is often the political and regulatory response to the last crisis that sets the stage for the next. And, sure enough, there are ominous signs that this is happening again.