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Day of reckoning looms after fixed-income party

No one counted on the bond celebrations lasting three years. But all good things must come to an end

The great bond party had to come to an end, but wasn't it fun while it lasted? The main investment banks made billions as they rode a yield curve that was almost consistently positive. Corporate and agency borrowers drooled as interest rates tumbled to their lowest levels in 40 years. Hedge funds too rode the debt capital markets gravy train. The fluctuating financial fortunes of some of the largest US and European industrial companies should have given even the sharpest traders heart flutters, but instead they played widening or contracting credit spreads like Jimmy the Greek on a night out in Las Vegas. Bond traders who not long ago were considered second-class citizens by their colleagues in investment banking and equities were now back on top of the social pile.

The chief executives and divisional managers of the main investment banks probably didn't expect the fixed-income celebrations to last for three years, but how grateful they must have been. While investment banking and equities swooned, bonds simply picked up the baton and ran and ran. Where would the premier league Wall Street and Euromarket houses be today if fixed income hadn't come riding to the rescue? How many more thousands of employees would have been fired? Where would investment bank share prices be today? If you are of a nervous disposition, don't even think about it.

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