According to Murphy’s Law, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Merger arbitrageurs burnt by the collapse of several high-profile deals last year seem to be taking the saying to heart, exercising caution before investing in takeover targets and pushing deal spreads on outstanding transactions wider.

Mergers and acquisitions bankers and those corporate clients that may be looking to make cheap acquisitions and divest peripheral businesses this year are watching the fate of last year's deals closely. The success of these will give an indicator of dealflows in the second half of the year, according to dealmakers.