One of my few claims to fame is that I was one of the first – perhaps the first – City of London analysts ever to confess publicly to error. I was running the sovereign risk side of what is now Fitch Ratings during the Asian crisis of 1997, and it seemed sensible at the time.
For a start, it was such a contrast with the pretended omniscience of most analysts that it was bound to get some media attention â and it did. And I reckoned we might get some credit for an honest post-mortem that would help rebuild confidence in our work. We highlighted the key role of short-term debt and illiquidity.
