It is a common artifice for economics and market commentators to aver that there has never been a more treacherous time for forecasting. For the past two years, there has been much truth in this disclaimer. However, as 2009 draws to a close, there are increasing signs of stabilisation in many economies and markets.

In the United States, gross domestic product growth resumed at mid-year. Recent economic data is consistent with GDP gains at a 3% annualised rate, an improvement from the 6% rate of decline last winter. Other nations are showing signs of positive inflection in their growth. Global trade is rising, as is demand for many consumer goods, technology products, industrial equipment, and commodities.