We are about to find out whether the worst of the euro debt crisis has come to an end – or whether it has simply been in remission. I am extremely cautious about the overall political and economic outlook this year. The chances are that the resolve of Europe’s policymakers to shore up the still ailing single currency will be tested at an unpropitious time.

A combination of political and economic circumstances will make 2014 a lot less benign than 2013 for euro area peripheral country debt and equity markets. High up on risk-watchers' radar screens is the potential for even the cautious tapering of Federal Reserve monetary stimulus to cause a drying up of capital flows into emerging market economies.