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Exploring the mysteries of the Fed’s monetary policy

Harvard economics professor Robert Barro is troubled that the era of low, steady inflation still does not admit of a clear explanation

Then-Federal Reserve Board Chair Paul Volcker testifying before the Senate Banking committee in 1985
Then-Federal Reserve Board Chair Paul Volcker testifying before the Senate Banking committee in 1985 Photo: Getty Images

One of the remarkable features of post-war economic history has been the taming of inflation in the US and many other countries since the mid-1980s. Before then, the US inflation rate (based on the deflator for personal consumption expenditures) averaged 6.6% per year during the 1970s, and exceeded 10% in 1979-1980.

In the early- and mid-1970s, presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford tried to curb inflation with a misguided combination of price controls and exhortation, along with moderate monetary restraint. But then came President Jimmy Carter, who, after initially maintaining this approach, appointed Paul Volcker to chair the US Federal Reserve in August 1979. Under Volcker, the Fed soon began to raise short-term nominal interest rates to whatever level it would take to bring down inflation.

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