The first working day of the year usually sees offices split sharply in two. Those of the “glass-half-full” persuasion will be glad they now have a clean slate: they can put the traumas of last year behind them and look forward to the opportunities they hope 2010 might bring. The glass-half-empty brigade will be fearing that 2009 will prove in the end to have been a false dawn, and that renewed woes are just around the corner.

There is plenty of evidence to support both sides as a new year begins. The world certainly feels far better than it did a year ago, when Europe's financial centres felt like very bleak places indeed. The economic outlook is a little brighter. Some banks' businesses are doing well. Equity markets have shown a robust return to health. Some hedge fund strategies are starting to find favour again.