Fund managers are the seismologists of the financial world. They spend much of their time worrying about where the next big earthquake – geological in one case, financial in the other – is likely to happen, and take action to ensure that the damage from it remains as contained as possible.

The trouble is that forecasting both is an inexact science. For example, American government scientists believe California has a greater than 99% chance of having a large, damaging earthquake in the next 30 years. But although they have a good idea that a significant dislocation will happen, predicting where and when it will occur is tougher. An earthquake hitting the middle of San Francisco is going to need an entirely different response to one centred a mile offshore, or another in the middle of the Mojave Desert.