Leaving the European Union without a deal could cost the UK 5.5% of real gross domestic product, with no growth in the first quarter of 2021, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

In a 13 December note on the cost of a no deal, analysts at the US investment bank warned that World Trade Organisation rules, under which the UK and the EU would operate if they emerge from talks with no deal, would come with “significant extra costs”. Under those rules, significant tariffs and quotas on goods would be introduced.