There is little light at the end of the tunnel for the UK’s fiscal deficit. It is forecast to reach £175bn (€202bn) this year, nearly 13% of GDP, or nearly twice the level which forced the Labour government to seek emergency help from the IMF in 1976.

The Chancellor's forecast that the deficit will then fall rapidly from this point is based on growth forecasts that are already looking hopelessly optimistic. The projection by Capital Economics of three years of £200bn deficits looks increasingly realistic.