Investors beware: The time of easy money is drawing to a close. The European Central Bank has been hammering home the message that a rate increase is more than likely April 7. The start of a rate-hiking cycle often upsets risk assets as investors adjust their expectations. This time is unlikely to be different.
The biggest novelty of this rate-hiking cycle is that it will likely be the ECB setting the pace on rate rises. Since 1970, the US Federal Reserve has raised rates a median 18 months ahead of Europe, Credit Suisse notes. What's more, interest rates may rise against a backdrop of fiscal tightening as European governments cut deficits. That will weigh on European stocks, particularly in the fiscally weaker countries.