"A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps", said humourist James Thurber. For everyone involved in Henderson Group’s bid for Gartmore, a speck of certainty would be priceless.

Henderson, the Anglo-Australian asset manager, has placed a conditional £344m offer for rival Gartmore, at a rumoured price of 95p a share. The bid, 125p lower than Gartmore's floating price this time last year, may mark the beginning of the end for asset manager.