I recently had a convivial lunch with a group of economists and journalists and found there was a consensus that the next year looked all right for economies and markets, but thereafter the outlook was dire. This caused me some unease, for, while I am used to encountering consensuses, I am not used to sharing them.

Predictions are bound to be wrong in detail when the timing of future events as well as their broad profile is being forecast, but the extent of the agreement surprised me, particularly as those contributing to the discussion had different reasons for their individual views.