The biggest surprise was perhaps not Donald Trump’s stunning victory but the markets’ reaction. A shrug. After an initial wobble in Asia, US and European equities rose.

If you believe what he said during the campaign, the next leader of the free world risks unleashing a trade war that could make the 1930s look like a summer picnic. Yet the S&P 500 closed more than 1% higher. In contrast, on the day Barack Obama was first elected in 2008 the index fell more than 5%.