Institutional investors are used to making complex choices but today there are global changes at play that place them squarely between opposing structural and cyclical forces. These tensions will require significantly more long-term thinking to navigate safely.

As part of a detailed analysis of the drivers of asset returns over the next decade, we predict only modest economic growth, which translates into fairly muted return expectations for equities and bonds. The late stage business cycle and already elevated valuations form an inescapable headwind.