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Is Jefferies a canary in the coal mine?

Jefferies is a better predictor of the rest of Wall Street's performance than you might have thought

Jefferies has always wanted to be taken a bit more seriously by its larger Wall Street cousins. And every quarter, the firm that likes to think of itself as a bit of an outsider gets the chance to prove whether it is a serious bellwether of the performance of big investment banks, or a minor distraction.

That's because Jefferies reports its quarterly earnings a month earlier than its bigger rivals. Its most recent quarterly numbers don't make for very pretty reading. Fixed-income revenues were down by 27% in the three months to May, compared with 2012, and pre-tax profits dropped by 35%. Chief executive Richard Handler described the mood as "tepid and cautious".

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