Italy came into the coronavirus crisis with a weak economy and the biggest pile of government debt in Europe. That pile is set to swell as the government spends on relief efforts. But bond investors, instead of treating Italy like the problem child of the past, are betting that the aggressive action from the European Central Bank will help it avert a debt crisis.

This year, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, forecasts that Italy will endure one of the trade bloc’s most severe downturns and shrink 9.5%. Rome has promised €80bn in direct spending and up to €750bn in loan guarantees to cushion the effects of the crisis on businesses and families. That is expected to push the country’s debt pile to 159% of GDP in 2020, its highest ever.