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It’s time to call the protectionists’ bluff

New trade deals can spark controversy, but it is highly unlikely that protectionism will prevail

If Trump followed through on his campaign promise to impose a 45% import tariff on Chinese goods, he would strike a major blow to US multinationals’ profits
If Trump followed through on his campaign promise to impose a 45% import tariff on Chinese goods, he would strike a major blow to US multinationals’ profits Photo: iStockPhoto

Most reports about globalisation in recent years have focused on its problems, such as declining levels of trade and the abandonment of “mega-regional” trade agreements. Indeed, US President Donald Trump has now terminated the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – a trade deal among a dozen Pacific-rim countries, including the US and Japan; and negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the US and the European Union have come to a halt.

But headlines can be misleading. Although new trade deals can spark controversy, it is highly unlikely that protectionism will prevail. This is true even in the US, where Trump was elected on the promise of getting tough with major trading partners such as Mexico and China. So far, the Trump administration has taken no action suggesting that a new era of protectionism is at hand. And in Europe, the benefits of economic openness have been widely acknowledged, and negotiations on a free-trade agreement with Japan are currently underway.

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