A single blink on a trading screen that normally flickers with changing prices indicates a slow afternoon in the bond markets for a hedge fund manager at investment group Julius Baer.

The lull gives Tim Haywood, director of fixed-income alternative investments, time to work on his latest idea. His research has persuaded him that speculation has been hiking the oil price by up to $10 a barrel more than is justified and he expects a fall. The funds he helps manage cannot take positions in commodities, so he turns to the currency markets to back his view. He hones in on countries that are large net producers of oil, such as Norway and Mexico, and those that are large net consumers, like Japan and South Africa.