As we entered the new year, all indications pointed to a remaking of the global order. Donald Trump was inaugurated as President of the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a defense of globalisation at Davos, and far-right leaders such as Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders held an “alternative European summit” in the German city of Koblenz.

Trump and his populist allies in Europe have denounced globalisation, while Xi now stands as its principal defender. But Trump’s message, in particular, is conflicted: pursuing strictly national economic interests may require less international cooperation, but bolstering security requires more.