Investors cite a potential oil shock as one of the most worrying down-side risks for the year ahead, but the price of the black stuff has rarely been more stable, in what may prove to be bad news for Barack Obama.

Analysts at Barclays Capital measured volatility of the oil price by measuring the variation in Brent crude over rolling 40 day periods. At present, they found that volatility was just 1.5%, the lowest rate observed since 1995.