There's no point in worrying about a US hard landing because it has already happened. History, data revisions and all, will almost certainly show the US entered recession during the fourth quarter of 2000. Consumer demand growth picked up briefly in January before slowing again while business investment began to fall towards the end of last year and is likely to go down for some time.

During the 1990s, business investment in the United States rose from about 10% of annual output (GDP) to some 14%. This was financed both by debt issuance and by equity creation. Meanwhile, households reduced their saving from some 7% of income over this period to just below zero.