With Emmanuel Macron’s defeat of the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, the European Union and the euro have dodged a bullet.

But geopolitical risks are continuing to proliferate. The populist backlash against globalisation in the west will not be stilled by Macron’s victory, and could still lead to protectionism, trade wars, and sharp restrictions to migration. If the forces of disintegration take hold, the UK’s withdrawal from the EU could eventually lead to a breakup of the EU – Macron or no Macron.