The first year of the brave new millennium could prove to be rather leaner than risk management systems vendors would have liked. Some observers suggest there could be a squeeze coming as the marketplace gets overcrowded, while others are saying that there are weaknesses in current risk systems and an over-reliance on mathematical models.

Geoff Kates, managing director at management consultancy Lepus, says there are more systems vendors in the market than there are buying decisions to be made, which could prove fatal to some providers. "I estimate that there will be about 50 major risk decisions made next year. There will be 51 vendors chasing the same 50 contracts. There will be tears."