The prospect of war, famine, pestilence and death – the four horsemen of the apocalypse – tipping the world into turmoil is more likely than most people, most of the time, can bear to think about. Asset managers, however, see signs that these harbingers of disaster have already arrived.

Glyn Jones, a managing director of investment consultant and asset manager P-Solve, said: "I don't think people realise how easily things could go awry over the next couple of years. There is a real possibility of civil unrest in economies that we've come to think of as quiet. There is a non-trivial chance of a major war."