The UK economy has finally provided a pleasant surprise. GDP grew 0.3% in the first quarter, better than the 0.1% forecast and thus avoiding a much-discussed triple-dip recession; that is impressive given the gloomy noises emerging from Europe. But the breakdown of growth is less encouraging: the UK is still relying on the services sector and now appears to be hoping for a pickup in borrowing and the housing market to drive growth.

Of course, there are plenty of caveats. This is the first estimate of growth, based on incomplete information, and might be revised. The big picture is still one of an economy that is only creeping forwards: GDP is still 2.6% below 2008's peak and has risen just 0.4% over the past 18 months. With global economic data showing signs of a slowdown, it isn't clear the first quarter's expansion is sustainable.