Before the Brexit referendum in 2016, Axel Weber, the chairman of UBS, predicted that if the UK voted to leave the EU it would be able to negotiate pretty much the same market access rights for financial services as it already enjoyed.

Some of his senior bankers were not so optimistic. They argued that the UK and EU would agree a deal maintaining the same terms in goods. After all, that would be hugely in the EU’s interests. But in services it would be much more difficult.