Finding a replacement for Eric Daniels as chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group will be a “highly political” affair given that the bank is 42% owned by the government and the taxpayer. So says David Buik, a market analyst at BGC Partners, who has drawn up odds on the most likely candidates. The majority, predictably, come from the retail sector - although there are two investment banking exceptions.

• Graham Beale - chief executive of Nationwide, who Buik describes as a "tremendous boring banker, who will wet Vince Cable's and George Osborne's whistle", 3/1 • Douglas Flint - finance director of HSBC, who would be an "excellent pair of steady hands", 3/1. • Stuart Gulliver - "An excellent appointee" if boss Michael Geoghegan isn't chosen as chairman of HSBC 4/1 • Gordon Nixon, chief executive of Royal Bank of Canada - has ensured a clean bank balance 4/1 • Cameron Clyne, chief executive of National Australia Bank - ditto 6/1 • Gail Kelly, chief executive of Australian bank Westpac - ditto 11/2 • Fritz Seegers -similar to Beale and bound who is bound to be a favourite with Cable and Osborne 7/2 • Helen Weir, head of Lloyd's retail - best internal candidate 8/1 • Richard Meddings, finance director at Standard Chartered 9/2 • Truett Tate, head of Lloyd's Banking's corporate division, and Tim Tookey, group finance director 10/1 • Naguib Kheraj, former chief executive of JP Morgan Cazenove 10/1 • Paul Thurston, head of domestic banking at HSBC 12/1 • Gary Hoffman, chief executive of Northern Rock 20/1